Twin solar storms may stoke auroras tonight Sept. 11-12

A CME or coronal mass ejection from the sun on September 9 is expected to pass Earth later today and possibly spark auroras tonight. Credit: NASA/ESA

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Two bursts of solar particles propelled by flares on September 9th and 10th are expected to arrive starting tonight and possibly touch off a moderate G2 geomagnetic storm. Translation: auroras may bloom in the next few nights!

A moderate M4 flare occurred early on September 9th followed by a more powerful X1.6 yesterday afternoon. Provided the magnetic field the particles come packaged in points in the right direction – south – these bursts have good potential for creating auroras tonight and again over the weekend.

A second, Earth-directed CME leaves the sun in the wake of the X1.6 flare on September 10th. Credit: NASA/ESA

The timing is good because the moon is past full and won’t be too bright. During a moderate storm, auroras are often seen across the northern tier of states and Canada. According to the latest NOAA space weather forecast, activity should kick up but remain shy of storm level from 9 p.m.-midnight Central Daylight Time tonight September 11th.

The brunt of the storm is expected from 1-4 a.m. tomorrow morning the 12th with effects lasting until 7 a.m.

This may only be the start of an even stronger storm anticipated Friday night and continuing into the weekend beginning from yesterday’s flare. That one blasted material directly toward Earth. Always a good omen for auroras.

Earth’s magnetic bubble, generated by motions within its iron-nickel core and shaped by the solar wind, is called the magnetosphere. It extends some 40,000 miles forward of the planet and more than 3.9 million miles in the tailward direction. Credit: NASA

As always with northern lights, keep in mind they’re fickle. Most of the time, Earth’s magnetic defense – a humongous, teardrop-shaped bubble of magnetism called the magnetosphere –  acts as a bulwark against strong solar winds, letting them slide by harmlessly. We’ll see what happens on this round, but I’m optimistic.

The Earth weather forecast for my locale is mostly clear tonight, so I’ll be monitoring the sky. Stop back later for an update.

* UPDATE 9 p.m. CDT: Quiet so far. Auroras still holed up in Hudson Bay and Quebec. The magnetic field direction of the arriving wind from the sun shows a lot of variation (see ACE satellite plot, topmost graph showing Bz) rising and falling from positive to negative. Negative is good! A prolonged stay at -10 or lower increase the chance of seeing the aurora.

Hole-y auroras possible tonight Aug. 30-31 / Jupiter returns

The dark opening at the center of the sun’s disk, seen here in ultraviolet light, is a coronal hole photographed on August 28 by the Solar Dynamics Observatory. Holes are ports through which high speed particles from the sun can pour freely into space unconstrained by solar magnetic fields. Credit: NASA

Sometimes it doesn’t take a big solar storm to incite an aurora. Often enough, a hole will do. Midweek, a blizzard of electrons and protons called a coronal mass ejection arrived in Earth’s vicinity, snuck past our magnetic defenses and painted northern skies for several nights in a row with glowing curtains and rays.

Yesterday night, a coronal hole did the same. Coronal holes are openings in the sun’s otherwise ‘locked down’ magnetic canopy. In the photo above, swirls of magnetism form closed loops over most of the sun’s lower atmosphere, keeping the bubbling sea of solar plasma (charged particles) at bay.

Enhancements in the solar wind either from solar storms (CMEs) and coronal holes send a thin soup of electrons and protons into space. If a batch happens to have a southward-pointing magnetic field, it can open a crack in Earth’s northward-pointing field and stimulate oxgen atoms and nitrogen molecules to glow in the upper atmosphere. The aurora is concentrated in two ovals, one hovering over each magnetic pole. Credit: Todd Salat

The sun’s so hot that it energizes and accelerates bits and pieces of itself – electrons and protons – to speeds high enough to escape its gravitational pull. Astronomers call the gust of departing particles the solar wind. Typical speeds hover around 250 miles per second (400 km/sec), but winds leave coronal holes unchecked and can blast into space at up to 500 miles per second (800 km/sec).

When the tempest arrives at Earth and harbors south-pointing magnetism, it links into Earth’s north-pointing magnetic field, sending electrons and protons at high speed down the planet’s magnetic field lines into the upper atmosphere to spark auroras.

Coronal holes are holes where the sun’s magnetic field where the solar wind can escape at high speed. Credit: NASA

NOAA space weather forecasters expect the effects of coronal holes to continue tonight and linger through Monday. Peak possibility for northern lights tonight happens between 10 p.m. and 1 a.m. CDT. Sometimes a particular hole can persist for several solar rotations causing repeat auroras every 27 days.

Stay tuned to Ovation aurora to see if any auroras are dropping south toward your region tonight.  I’ll be in touch.

Jupiter (top) and Venus in bright twilight on August 27, 2014. Credit: Bob King

The other morning while watching aurora I was happy to see that Jupiter had jumped back into the sky. It cleared the trees during twilight and was followed a half hour later by Venus. Low elevation and wiggly air currents meant I couldn’t magnify it much, but at 64x but north and south equatorial belts were unmistakeable.

I always look forward to that first view of Jupiter after conjunction with the sun. We last saw the planet in June, quite a while back. Jupiter’s weather and cloud patterns constantly change. One never knows what to expect when it’s out of sight for a couple months – sometimes an entire equatorial belt can disappear! I’m hear to report that both are still intact.

Brief aurora Weds. Aug. 20-21 – maybe more overnight?

A low arc and dim green rays were topped by a red border in this photo taken around 11 p.m. CDT Wednesday night Aug. 20. Details: ISO 3200, f/2.8, 20mm lens. Credit: Bob King

Scandinavians were the lucky ones yesterday when auroras broke out during their nighttime. Here in the U.S. it was still afternoon. Auroras are mighty scarce in sunshine.

Tonight to my surprise, we had a brief display around 11 p.m. CDT.  An arc rose above Boulder Lake north of Duluth, Minn., where a group of naturalists and I spent the night at the telescope under a starry sky. At the sight of a few needle-thin rays, one in our group jumped in a canoe and paddled out into the lake for a better view.

More rays taken a few minutes after the first photo. The display was fairly quiet and reached to about 10 degrees above the northern horizon. Credit: Bob King

Not 15 minutes after it began, the arc and rays faded away, leaving only a faint, diffuse glow until fog settled in around midnight. The Kp index rose slightly during the evening, and the ACE satellite plot has shown a southward pointing Bz or solar magnetic field in Earth’s vicinity for many hours. This is often a good indicator of auroral activity on the way.

The show was subtle but no one was disappointed. Auroras are always welcome around here.

Aurora alert tonight Aug. 19-20 for northern U.S.

“Unbelievable,” says Reid Wiseman on seeing a spectacular auroral display from a window on the International Space Station this evening. This photo was tweeted out at 6 p.m. CDT. Credit: NASA/Reid Wiseman

The astronauts are seeing it from the space station. You and I just might too. A G2 moderate auroral storm kicked up this afternoon and early evening, and according to NOAA space weather experts, is expected to continue into the night.

Another shot of the aurora from orbit. “Never in my wildest dreams did I imagine this,” said Wiseman.

A coronal mass ejection (CME) caused by a filament or plume of hydrogen gas ejected a few days ago caused the sudden surge. The Kp index, a reliable indicator of magnetic activity in Earth’s upper atmosphere hit 6 earlier this evening. Should it ‘stick’ there, skywatchers in Canada and across the northern U.S. stand a good chance of seeing auroras tonight. Look to the north at the onset of night. I’ll keep you posted.

* Update 11 p.m. CDT: The Kp has plummeted to 2! That’s not good. It’s always possible that activity will shoot up again overnight. If you’re out tonight, take a look before going to bed.

Aurora alert tonight Aug. 2 / Rosetta comet update – striking new details!

A CME or coronal mass ejection erupting on July 30 may lead to a small display of northern lights tonight. Jupiter at right in this photo made with the coronagraph on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. Credit: NASA/ESA

Minor auroras might visit skies across the northern U.S. and southern Canada tonight, the result of a coronal mass ejection from an erupting filament on July 30. Filaments are clouds of hot hydrogen gas suspended in the sun’s lower atmosphere. They often stay put for days, but a little magnetic instability can launch one into space.

Material from the filament is expected to begin arriving this afternoon and continue into the evening hours. I’ll have an update later if auroras materialize. Meanwhile, keep an eye on the northern horizon when it gets dark tonight. Fortunately, the moon will only be a half and not wash out the sky.

Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko at 621 miles (1,000 km) on August 1. Wow! Look at that richly-textured surface. This photo has higher resolution than previous images because it was taken with Rosetta’s narrow angle camera. The black spot is an artifact. Credit: ESA/Rosetta/MPS for OSIRIS Team MPS/UPD/LAM/IAA/SSO/INTA/UPM/DASP/IDA

Rosetta sent two new pictures of Comet 67P/C-G from 621 miles (1,000 km) away that show striking new details including new artifacts. I’ve done some digging around and discovered that the dome-like features and ‘craters’ seen on the past couple photos are really artifacts due to image processing.

Wider-angle and lower resolution navigation camera photo of the comet. More artifacts are seen including what look like bumps or boulders. Credit: ESA

You’ll see a black spot (artifact) in the narrow-angle camera and another dome artifact in the Navcam photo. They’re generally pairs of bad pixels that get smoothed out in processing to look like real features on the comet’s surface. Those should go away once the spacecraft is close enough for the comet to fill the field of view.

Fire haze turns sun into big red ball

A towering cumulus cloud partially eclipses the setting sun Monday evening seen from Duluth. Haze from Canadian forest fires has returned to the region making for deep red suns around sunrise and sunset. Credit: Bob King

Smoke from fires in the Canada’s Northwest Territories continues to funnel down across Manitoba and into the U.S. Upper Midwest creating an artificial overcast of smoky haze. We’ve lost the blue clarity of our daytime sky; at night stars look much dimmer seem more distant.

If you’re a skywatcher, everything in the nighttime sky looks noticeably fainter, especially objects within 20° of the horizon. I feel as if I’m looking through gauze. The unusually pallid appearance of the sky from dinnertime onward might make you think the sun has already set until you realize it’s still out there in the west looking little brighter than the full moon.

Funny. Yesterday, when I took this picture, someone pulled up alongside my car and remarked at how amazing the moon looked. The strangely faint sun had thrown him off!

The full sun shortly before setting yesterday July 28, 2014. You might see three small sunspot groups – two to the right of center and a third a short distance within the sun’s left limb. Credit: Bob King

Fire smoke generally scatters away nearly all light from the setting sun except deep oranges and reds.

The haze is both good and bad when it comes to observing. We like a big red sun, but it’s tough sacrificing otherwise clear nights.

I shouldn’t complain. People farther north, where the smoke is heavier, have to breath it.

Keep watch on the moon the next few nights as it waxes from crescent to half. If you live where there’s forest fire smoke, chances are you’re in for some red moons too.

Sunrise and sunset – nature’s most beautiful illusions

Earth turns on its axis to greet the sun at sunrise each morning of the year. Credit: Bob King

Every day the sun rises, crosses the sky and sets. And it does it again and again and again like the perpetually repeating cycle of events in the movie Groundhog Day.

Except perhaps for a few remaining Flat-Earthers, we know what’s going on here. The sun’s not doing the moving. Instead, the Earth’s rotation causes the apparent motion of the sun across the sky. Yet the sense of the sun’s movement is so powerfully ingrained in our experience you might balk if I told you it’s essentially sitting still in the sky.

Every day the turning Earth causes the nearly static sun to rise in the east at sunrise and set in the west at sunset. Credit: Canadian Space Agency

For you to see a sunrise, Earth must rotate on its axis until your location faces the sun as it crests above the planet’s curvature. The following morning, when Earth rolls around after another 24 hours, the sun is very nearly in the same place in the celestial sphere as the previous morning. Once again, we see the sun ‘rise’. Ditto for the next morning and the next. It’s like turning over in your bed each and every morning and seeing your spouse in the same spot. Or very nearly.

If the Earth spun but stood in one spot never circling the sun, we would meet the rising sun at precisely the same time and place every day ad infinitum – a true Groundhog Day scenario. But the Earth orbits or revolves around the sun as surely as it rotates. Just like our daily spin, our planet’s revolution is reflected in the sun, which appears to slowly crawl across the sky, inching its way from one background zodiac constellation to the next, during the course of a year.

The orbiting and titled Earth cause slow but continuous changes in the times of sunrise and sunset during the course of a year. Credit: Thomas G. Andrews, NOAA Paleoclimatology

The ever-changing times of sunrise and sunset stem from the Earth’s orbital travels combined with the shifting seasonal tilt of the planet. From December 21 until June 21, as the amount of daylight increases in the northern hemisphere, the sun appears to travel slowly northward in the sky and we meet its welcome rays a couple minutes earlier each morning.

The sun’s yearly motion across the sky during the year traces out a path called the ecliptic. The top of the curve, at right, is the sun’s position during the summer. The low part of the curve is the sun’s location during winter. The up-and-down path is a reflection of the 23 1/2-degree tilt of the Earth’s axis. Illustration and animation by Dr. John Lucey, Durham University

Then from June 22 to December 20, Earth’s orbital motion causes the north polar axis to slowly point away from the sun. The sun appears to slide south as the hours of daylight wane, and we meet the sunrise a minute or two later each morning.

The sun, located some 26,000 light years from the center of the Milky Way galaxy, takes about 220 million years to make one revolution around its core moving at 483,000 mph. Credit: ESO

Earth moves along its orbit at an average speed of 67,000 mph (108,000 km/hr).

How about the sun? If I left the impression that it’s totally static I apologize. Yesiree, it’s moving too – at the astonishing speed of 483,000 miles per hour (792,000 km/hr) around the center of the galaxy.

Don’t look now, but you and I are going on the ride of our lives.The only reason stars remain static in the sky over the span of many generations despite the sun’s hurry is because nearly all of them are too far away to show a shift in position with the human eye. Telescopes, which magnify everything including motion, do show very subtle changes in the positions of nearby stars over much shorter time intervals.

Rising each morning to the same old sun, I try to remind myself that with every rotation comes a new opportunity to spin some joy into the day.

Tomorrow’s new moon foretells October’s solar eclipse

Tomorrow July 26, 2014, the invisible new moon will pass a few degrees south of the sun in the daytime sky. Stellarium

New moons aren’t much to look at. You can’t even see them most months of the year. That’s true for tomorrow’s new moon which will invisibly accompany the sun in its journey across the sky.

New moons occur about once a month when the moon passes between the sun and Earth. We can’t see them for two reasons: first, no sunshine touches the Earth-facing side when the moon lies in the same direction as the sun. It’s completely dark. From our perspective, the out-of-view lunar farside gets all the sunlight. Second, since the moon is nearly in line with the sun, it’s utterly lost in the glare of daylight.

The moon seesaws 5 degrees north and south of Earth’s orbit during its monthly cycle because its orbit is tilted with respect to Earth’s. Only when the moon crosses the plane of Earth’s orbit at the same time as a new moon do we see a solar eclipse. Illustration: Bob King

We normally have to wait two days after new moon – when the moon’s orbital motion carries it to the left (east) of the sun – to see it as a thin crescent at dusk.

Most of the time the moon passes north or south of the sun at new phase because its orbit is tilted 5 degrees with respect to Earth’s. But 2.4 times a year on average, new moon coincides with the time the moon’s seesawing path slices through the plane of Earth’s orbit. For a brief time during that crossing, all three bodies are aligned and happy earthlings witness a solar eclipse.

If the alignment is imprecise, the moon blocks only a part of the sun, giving us a partial solar eclipse.  If dead-on, we see a rarer total solar eclipse.

View of the partial solar eclipse across the Upper Midwest a half hour before sunset on October 23. By coincidence, Venus will be near conjunction at the same time and only a couple moon diameters north of the pair. Seeing the planet in a telescope will still be challenging because of daylight glare.  Stellarium

On October 23 this year, the lineup at new moon will be a good if imperfect one with a maximum of 81% of the sun covered. The partial eclipse will be visible across much of North America; from the eastern half of the U.S. and Canada the event will occur near sunset, adding a touch of drama to the scene.

I wrote earlier that we can’t see a new moon. That’s only partly true. We mostly pay attention to the sun’s changing shape during solar eclipses, but the dark, curving bite working its way slowly across the sun’s disk is none other than the new moon seen in silhouette.

Shhh! Don’t wake the sun

Contrast these views of the nearly spotless sun on July 16-17, 2014 with a picture taken about two weeks earlier (below). Credit: Giorgio Rizzarelli

Who doesn’t enjoy a nap on a lazy summer afternoon? That’s what the sun’s been up to past few days. Instead of a steady parade of sunspots, it put its pencils away and went to sleep. For a time on July 17 not a singe magnetic blemish marred the entire Earth-facing hemisphere. The last time that happened was nearly 3 years ago on Aug. 14, 2011.

Ten groups including three visible with the naked eye dot the sun on July 8, 2014. Credit: NASA

The solar blank stare lasted but a day; by the 18th two small groups emerged. Today three little spot clusters have emerged but again, they’re on the small side.

I think the reason the sun looks so stark is that only two weeks ago nearly a dozen sunspot regions freckled the disk including three visible with the naked eye with a safe solar filter.

These ups and downs aren’t unusual unless this downturn continues for weeks. Expect more bubbles of magnetic energy to rise from beneath the glaring surface of the sun called the photosphere and spawn fresh groups soon. Because we now have eyes on the farside of the sun courtesy of the dual STEREO solar probes, we know the complete story. There are at least seven spotted regions in hiding there today.

Sunspot numbers are plotted for the last three solar cycles through the present. The double peak of the current cycle is shown. Credit: NASA

Sunspots and flares peak approximately every 11 years. We’re still riding the roller coaster near the top of the arc after the most recent solar maximum in late 2013. Some maxima are strong, others weak. The current max – Cycle 24 – is the weakest since Cycle 14 in February of 1906 and one of the wimpiest on record. Occasionally a cycle will have two peaks like the current one. The first peak occurred in Feb. 2012 and the second just this past June. What makes Cycle 24 even more unusual is that the second peak is higher than the first – the first time this has ever been recorded. Like people, every maximum has a personality of its own.

Doug Bieseker of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center has analyzed historical records of solar activity and he finds that most large events such as strong flares and significant geomagnetic storms typically occur in the declining phase of solar cycles—even weak ones, so don’t give up hope for some great auroral displays ahead.

A coronal mass ejection blew off on the farside of the sun early this morning July 20. It appears to envelop Jupiter, but the planet is 490 million miles in the background. SOHO uses an occulting disk to block the brilliant sun. Credit: NASA/ESA

The sun’s got a buddy this week – Jupiter! We can’t see the planet from the ground because it’s swamped by solar glare, but the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) has a great view from space. Watch the sun approach from the right and pass the planet over the next few days. After the 24th, Jupiter will move into the morning sky.

Huge sunspots scar the sun this week

Ten groups including three visible with the naked eye protected with a safe filter dot the sun today. Photo by the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) taken at 8 a.m. CDT today July 9. Credit: NASA

A trio of impressive sunspot groups are parading across the sun’s face this week. Regions 2108, 2109 and 2110 are all closely-spaced and near the center of the disk today. All three require nothing more than a pair of eyes and a safe solar filter to view.

The sun seen through a standard 200mm telephoto lens and solar filter this morning gives you an idea of how the big sunspot groups look to the naked eye. Credit: Bob King

I took a look through my handy #14 welders glass this morning and saw 2110 distinctly; the other two groups blended into a single ‘spot’ at first. Looking closely I could barely split them into two separate dots. The view was spectacular at 30x in my little telescope with a total of ten sunspot groups and lots of fine detail in the three biggest.

Given high sunspot counts, the chance for flaring has been increasing in recent days. Today there’s a 75% chance for moderately strong M-class flares and 20% chance for the most powerful X-class variety.

Safe solar filters come in several varieties of optical / coated plastic and glass. Click to see ones you can purchase from Rainbow Symphony. Credit: Bob King

Curiously, none of the three biggies has shot off a large flare in the past day or two; they’re all currently stable. But the inconspicuous group 2113 fired off a beefy M6 flare only yesterday. It’s not expected to affect Earth, but because 2113 hides a complex magnetic field, future M-class or stronger blasts may be possible.

M6-class solar flare eruption from sunspot group 2113 captured July 8, 2014 at 11:24 a.m. by SDO. Credit: NASA

It seems like we’re due for aurora, so I’d be surprised if the current activity doesn’t lead to at least a minor storm soon. I’ll keep you updated.